2 years ago
Tues Apr 26, 2022 7:46pm PST
How many shares needed to go private with Twitter?
Before acquiring Twitter, Elon Musk said: "The intent is to retain as many shareholders as allowed by the law for a private company, which I think is around 2,000 or so. We’ll try to bring along as many shareholders as we’re allowed to."

How could we best estimate what number of shares one would need to be held to be in the top 2000 shareholders of Twitter? Could we assume a normal distribution of share ownership?

According to Yahoo finance, there are 799M shares outstanding. According to CNN, the top institutional shareholders are as follows:

The Vanguard Group, Inc (82,403,665 shares) Morgan Stanley Investment (64,722,431 shares) BlackRock Fund Advisors (36,536,143 shares) SSgA Funds (36,363,324 shares) Aristotle Capital (20,112,134 shares) Fidelity Management (17,112,059 shares) Clearbridge Investments (16,733,505 shares) Geode Capital Management (14,314,021 shares) Nikko Asset Management (12,467,698 shares) Nikko Asset Management Americas (10,297,193 shares) More data here: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/twtr/institutional-holdings

And then of course, you have the individual shareholders like Jack Dorsey who owns ~18,000,000 shares.

tl;dr What is your best method for estimation and estimate for the number of shares required to be in the top 2000 shareholders of Twitter?

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