1. Industry Transparency: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-industry-transparency
2. Generative Knowledge Bases: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-generative-knowledge-base
3. Current State: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-the-current-state
4. Forecast: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-prognosis
Since posts are quite long, here are key takeaways.
By analyzing the decisions of major AI developers, such as OpenAI or Google, we can make fairly accurate assumptions about the state of the AI industry.
All current progress is based on a single base technology — generative knowledge bases, which are large probabilistic models.
The development of neural networks, a.k.a. generative knowledge bases, is reaching a plateau. Future progress is likely to be incremental/evolutionary rather than explosive/revolutionary.
We shouldn't expect singularity, strong AI, or job loss to robots (in the near future).
Instead, we should expect increased labor productivity, job redistribution, turbulence in education, and shifts in the education level of future generations.
What do you think? How does the concept of "generative knowledge bases" resonate with your understanding of the current situation?